Sales Are Climbing, but 2025 Forecast Remains Cautious
Even though the Canadian real estate market is starting to show signs of momentum, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is still forecasting a modest dip in sales and average prices for 2025. So, what does this mean for buyers, sellers, and investors right now?
Let’s break it all down in simple terms.
📈 Market at a Glance: What’s Happening?
National home sales rose 2.8% in June compared to May marking the second straight month of gains.
New listings decreased 2.9%, after months of steady growth.
Home prices held steady, a good sign after a period of declines earlier this year.
CREA’s updated 2025 forecast expects:
A 3% drop in national home sales
A 1.7% decline in average home prices, bringing the national average to $677,368
🏙️ Regional Trends: B.C. and Ontario Lead the Decline
While some provinces are seeing stability or slight growth, British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario are forecast to experience declines in both home sales and prices. These high-priced markets are pulling the national averages down, even though other regions are holding steady or improving.
For example, in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA):
Sales have climbed 17.4% since April, showing a local resurgence.
🔮 What to Expect in 2026
Looking ahead:
Home sales are forecast to bounce back by 6.3% next year, reaching nearly 499,000 transactions.
Average home prices are expected to rise 3%, reaching about $697,929.
This would mark the sixth year in a row where average prices hover around the $700K mark.
However, even with this growth, national sales are still not expected to cross 500,000 units something that hasn’t happened since 2021.
🏦 Interest Rates Are Dropping A Game Changer?
One of the most important shifts for buyers is in interest rates:
The Bank of Canada’s policy rate has been reduced from 5% in April 2024 to 2.75% today.
While another rate cut is not expected this month, current rates already present a more favorable borrowing environment.
Lower interest rates mean more affordable monthly payments and greater buying power.
🏘️ Inventory is Growing More Choices for Buyers
The number of homes on the market is up 11.4% compared to this time last year.
This gives buyers more options and more negotiating power especially in markets where sellers are pricing competitively.
🏙️ Spotlight on Toronto’s Condo Market
Toronto's condo market is facing serious challenges:
Condo sales in Q1 2025 dropped by 21.7% compared to the same period last year.
According to Urbanation, new condo sales in Toronto are at 30-year lows.
This could mean great deals for buyers looking to get into the condo market, or opportunities for investors to buy low.
🤔 So, Is It a Good Time to Buy?
For serious buyers with job security and long-term plans, now might be the perfect time to enter the market:
✔️ Lower interest rates
✔️ More inventory
✔️ Motivated sellers
✔️ Stabilized home prices
✔️ Room for negotiation
While the market still carries some uncertainty, the current conditions are tipping in favor of buyers especially those ready to act strategically.
💬 Final Thoughts
The Canadian real estate market is showing signs of recovery, but CREA’s cautious outlook reminds us that the journey back to a strong and stable market will take time. For buyers, this may be a golden window to secure the right home at the right price before competition heats up again.
Need help navigating the market or want to discuss your options?
Feel free to reach out I’m here to guide you every step of the way.